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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 12, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Conservation planning when costs are uncertain.

Josie Carwardine¹, Kerrie A Wilson, Stefan A Hajkowicz

¹The Ecology Centre, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia. josie.carwardine@csiro.au

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology

|June 22, 2010

Summary

Conservation planning benefits from cost data, even with uncertainty. Site priority is mainly driven by conservation importance, not just cost, especially for essential or unimportant sites.

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Area of Science:

Conservation Science
Spatial Planning
Ecological Economics

Background:

Spatially explicit cost data enhances conservation planning efficiency.
Uncertainty in conservation action costs, like land purchase prices, is common and impacts planning.
The effect of cost uncertainty on site conservation priority is not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate how uncertainty in cost estimates affects the conservation priority of sites.
To assess the sensitivity of conservation priorities to variations in property costs.
To inform strategic conservation planning by understanding the role of cost uncertainty.

Main Methods:

Simulated a four-fold expansion of protected areas in Queensland, Australia.
Estimated property costs for 17,790 sites using unimproved land values.
Systematically varied property costs to analyze their impact on site conservation priority.

Main Results:

Site priority sensitivity to cost data depended on its importance for conservation targets.
Essential or unimportant sites maintained their priority regardless of cost fluctuations.
Intermediate priority sites showed sensitivity to cost, offering potential efficiency gains if acquired below estimated prices.

Conclusions:

Uncertainty in cost estimates does not prevent the effective use of cost data in conservation planning.
Understanding cost sensitivity helps strategic planning, especially when land prices are not yet finalized.
Conservation priority is robust to cost uncertainty for sites critical or non-critical to targets.