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A simple novel model to predict hospital mortality, surgical site infection, and pneumonia in elderly patients
Ting-Shuo Huang1, Fu-Chang Hu, Chung-Wei Fan
1Division of General Surgery, Department of Surgery, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University, Keelung Branch, Keelung, Taiwan, ROC.
Background/Aims:
Predicting models of operative morbidity and mortality in the geriatric population are important in the prevention of adverse surgical outcomes.
Methods:
A retrospective review of medical records was performed for patients over 80 years of age who underwent gastrointestinal surgery from 1998 to 2008.
Results:
215 patients were identified with a mean age of 83.7 years. Overall morbidity and mortality rates were 48.8 and 14.4%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that serum albumin levels [odds ratio (OR) = 0.367, p = 0.0267], postoperative pneumonia (OR = 3.471, p = 0.0101), hollow organ perforation or anastomosis combined with leakage (OR = 7.600, p = 0.0126), and preoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome (OR = 3.186, p = 0.0323) were significant predictors of hospital mortality. Moreover, albumin (OR = 0.270, p = 0.0002) and physical disability (OR = 3.802, p = 0.0009) were significant predictors of postoperative pneumonia, and albumin (OR = 0.491, p = 0.0212) and enterotomy (OR = 3.335, p = 0.0208) were significant predictors of surgical site infections.
Conclusion:
This study provides novel predicting models to identify the elderly surgical patients at high risk, who should receive more intensive preventive and perioperative care.
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