Future trends in the supply and demand for radiation oncology physicists

Significant controversy surrounds the 2012 / 2014 decision announced by the Trustees of the American Board of Radiology (ABR) in October of 2007. According to the ABR, only medical physicists who are graduates of a Commission on Accreditation of Medical Physics Education Programs, Inc. (CAMPEP) accredited academic or residency program will be admitted for examination in the years 2012 and 2013. Only graduates of a CAMPEP accredited residency program will be admitted for examination beginning in the year 2014. An essential question facing the radiation oncology physics community is an estimation of supply and demand for medical physicists through the year 2020. To that end, a Demand & Supply dynamic model was created using STELLA software. Inputs into the model include: a) projected new cancer incidence and prevalence 1990-2020; b) AAPM member ages and retirement projections 1990-2020; c) number of ABR physics diplomates 1990-2009; d) number of patients per Qualified Medical Physicist from Abt Reports I (1995), II (2002) and III (2008); e) non-CAMPEP physicists trained 1990-2009 and projected through 2014; f) CAMPEP physicists trained 1993-2008 and projected through 2014; and g) working Qualified Medical Physicists in radiation oncology in the United States (1990-2007). The model indicates that the number of qualified medical physicists working in radiation oncology required to meet demand in 2020 will be 150-175 per year. Because there is some elasticity in the workforce, a portion of the work effort might be assumed by practicing medical physicists. However, the minimum number of new radiation oncology physicists (ROPs) required for the health of the profession is estimated to be 125 per year in 2020. The radiation oncology physics community should plan to build residency programs to support these numbers for the future of the profession.