Evaluation of mathematical models to describe testicular growth in Blackbelly ram lambs

The primary objective was to compare various mathematical models to describe scrotal circumference (SC) and paired testis volume development in Blackbelly ram lambs. The study was conducted in the state of Querétaro, México (20° 43' N, 100° 15' W). Spring-born Blackbelly ram lambs (n = 41) were housed outdoors and fed alfalfa hay and concentrate. Body weight, SC, and testis length, diameter, and volume were recorded every 2 wk from 24 to 172 d of age (June 18 to November 3). The following mathematical functions were used to model SC-age and testis volume-age relationship: Von Bertalanffy, Brody, Gompertz, Logistic, and Richards. The suitability of the models was evaluated based on parameter values and standard errors, residual mean square, the coefficient of determination (R(2)), and the average prediction error (APE). All models, except for Brody's, had good fit to SC (R(2) > 0.98) and testis volume (R(2) > 0.95), and produced similar growth curves in the range of ages studied. The logistic model predicted SC at maturity quite well, 33.6 ± 0.6 cm as compared with 33.9 ± 0.5 cm observed in adult animals; all models had APE's smaller than ± 7% between 56 and 168 d of age. The Bertalanffy model predicted testis volume at maturity quite well, 513 ± 22 cm(3) as compared with 488 ± 20 cm(3) calculated for adult animals. The logistic model had a good fit to testis volume during the period of study, but underestimated the volume at maturity by 28%. All models, except for Brody's, had APE's smaller than ± 14% between 98 and 168 d of age. The logistic and Bertalanffy models predicted the inflection point for SC at 83 and 59 d of age, and testis volume at 116 and 109 d of age, respectively. In conclusion, all models, except for Brody's, had good fit to actual SC and testis volume data in the range of age evaluated, whereas the logistic and Bertalanffy's models made the best predictions for adult SC and testis volume, respectively.