Brief communication: a probabilistic approach to age estimation from infracranial sequences of maturation

Infracranial sequences of maturation are commonly used to estimate the age at death of nonadult specimens found in archaeological, paleoanthropological, or forensic contexts. Typically, an age assessment is made by comparing the degree of long-bone epiphyseal fusion in the target specimen to the age ranges for different stages of fusion in a reference skeletal collection. While useful as a first approximation, this approach has a number of shortcomings, including the potential for "age mimicry," being highly dependent on the sample size of the reference sample and outliers, not using the entire fusion distribution, and lacking a straightforward quantitative way of combining age estimates from multiple sites of fusion. Here we present an alternative probabilistic approach based on data collected on 137 individuals, ranging in age from 7- to 29-years old, from a documented skeletal collection from Coimbra, Portugal. We then use cross validation to evaluate the accuracy of age estimation from epiphyseal fusion. While point estimates of age can, at least in some circumstances, be both accurate and precise based on the entire skeleton, or many sites of fusion, there will often be substantial error in these estimates when they derive from one or only a few sites. Because a probabilistic approach to age estimation from epiphyseal fusion is computationally intensive, we make available a series of spreadsheets or computer programs that implement the approach presented here.