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Social demographic change and autism
Kayuet Liu1, Noam Zerubavel, Peter Bearman
1Paul F. Lazarsfeld Center for the Social Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
Demography
|July 9, 2010
Summary
Parental age and autism risk are linked by de novo mutations. Rising germ cell mutations, not just genetics, explain increased autism prevalence.
Area of Science:
- Genetics
- Developmental Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Parental age at childbirth has increased in recent US birth cohorts.
- Increased parental age is associated with a higher risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of de novo mutations in the association between parental age and autism risk.
- To re-evaluate autism heritability estimates in light of demographic and genetic factors.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of twin pair concordance patterns through a social demographic lens.
- Examination of germ cell mutation rates in relation to parental age and autism prevalence.
Main Results:
- De novo mutations in germ cells are identified as a key mechanism linking parental age to autism.
- Autism heritability estimates have been significantly overestimated.
- Heritability estimates for autism are dynamic and influenced by changes in germ cell mutation rates over time.
Conclusions:
- Social demographic changes, specifically increased parental age, contribute to rising autism prevalence through increased de novo mutations.
- The role of germ cell mutations must be considered in understanding autism etiology and prevalence trends.
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