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A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data

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A multiphase method for estimating cohort effects in age-period contingency table data.

Katherine M Keyes¹, Guohua Li

¹Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA. kmk2104@columbia.edu

Annals of Epidemiology

|July 15, 2010

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Men born after 1960 experienced significantly higher homicide rates. This study introduces a three-phase method to analyze age, period, and cohort effects on mortality, revealing increased risks for later birth cohorts.

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Biostatistics
Public Health

Background:

Understanding demographic influences on disease morbidity and mortality is crucial for identifying etiological factors and developing effective prevention strategies.
Age, period, and cohort (APC) effects are key demographic factors influencing health outcomes, but their complex interplay requires robust analytical methods.
Traditional APC analyses often treat cohort effects independently, potentially overlooking nuanced interactions with age and period.

Observation:

This study analyzed US male homicide mortality data from 1935 to 2004.
A novel three-phase method was employed to analyze age, period, and cohort effects.
The cohort effect was conceptualized as a partial interaction between age and period.

Findings:

A three-phase method was developed, involving graphical inspection, median polish, and residual regression.
Individuals born after 1960 showed a significantly elevated homicide rate compared to those born between 1920-1924.
Men born between 1980-1984 had over double the homicide rate of men born between 1920-1924 (RR=2.11).

Implications:

The proposed three-phase method offers a more interpretable and reliable approach to APC analysis.
This method conceptualizes cohort effects as a partial interaction, enhancing etiological understanding.
Findings highlight the need for targeted prevention programs addressing cohort-specific risks in homicide mortality.