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Projection of mesothelioma mortality in Britain using Bayesian methods
1Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton, Derbyshire SK17 9JN, UK. emma.tan@hsl.gov.uk
British Journal of Cancer
|July 15, 2010
Summary
Mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain are predicted to peak in 2016, with asbestos exposure for males peaking in 1963. This analysis forecasts over 91,000 deaths from 1968 to 2050.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Mesothelioma mortality has risen significantly in Great Britain over 40 years.
- Annual mesothelioma deaths constitute over 1% of all cancer deaths.
- A Poisson regression model was employed for statistical inference and future mortality predictions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model mesothelioma mortality trends in Great Britain.
- To predict future mesothelioma deaths based on asbestos exposure.
- To analyze the relationship between asbestos exposure and mesothelioma risk.
Main Methods:
- A Poisson regression model was fitted within a Bayesian framework.
- The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique) was utilized.
- The model incorporated age-specific exposure potential and average collective asbestos dose.
Main Results:
- The peak year for asbestos exposure in males was estimated to be 1963, typically between ages 30-49.
- An estimated 1.08 background mesothelioma cases per million population were found.
- Mesothelioma mortality in males is projected to peak around 2040 deaths in 2016, followed by a decline.
Conclusions:
- Mesothelioma mortality is expected to peak in 2016 and then decline.
- A substantial number of mesothelioma deaths (approx. 91,000) are predicted between 1968 and 2050.
- Over 61,000 deaths are anticipated from 2007 onwards, highlighting the long-term impact of asbestos exposure.
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