Correlation between aflatoxin contamination and various USDA grade categories of shelled almonds

The California almond industry is interested in determining if there is a correlation between aflatoxin contamination and almonds classified into various U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) grades. A 12 000 g sample was taken from each of 50 lots of shelled almonds. The almonds in each sample were then partitioned into five USDA grades: high quality (HQ), insect damage (ID), mold damage (MOD), mechanical damage (MED), and other defects (OD). Across all 50 samples, kernels in the HQ grade accounted for 83.7% of the kernel mass and 3.2% of the aflatoxin mass. Conversely, kernels in the remaining four damage grades (ID, MOD, MED, and OD) accounted for 16.3% of the kernel mass and 96.8% of the aflatoxin mass. ID kernels had the highest risk for aflatoxin contamination. Almonds in the ID grade accounted for 76.3% of the total aflatoxin mass and 7.2% of the kernel mass. Regression equations were developed to predict the aflatoxin concentration in each 12 000 g sample by measuring the aflatoxin mass in one or more of the four damage grades. Regression equations demonstrated that aflatoxin mass only in the insect damaged kernels was also an effective way to predict the aflatoxin concentration in each 12 000 g sample.