Anticipating the next meal using meal behavioral profiles: a hybrid model-based stochastic predictive control...

Automatic control of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) with subcutaneous (SC) measurement of glucose concentration and subcutaneous (SC) insulin infusion is of great interest within the diabetes technology research community. The main challenge with the so-called "SC-SC" route to control is sensing and actuation delay, which tends to either destabilize the system or inhibit the aggressiveness of the controller in responding to meals and exercise. Model predictive control (MPC) is one strategy for mitigating delay, where optimal insulin infusions can be given in anticipation of future meal disturbances. Unfortunately, exact prior knowledge of meals can only be assured in a clinical environment and uncertainty about when and if meals will arrive could lead to catastrophic outcomes. As a follow-on to our recent paper in the IFAC symposium on Biological and Medical Systems (MCBMS 2009), we develop a control law that can anticipate meals given a probabilistic description of the patient's eating behavior in the form of a random meal (behavioral) profile. Preclinical in silico trials using the oral glucose meal model of Dalla Man et al. show that the control strategy provides a convenient means of accounting for uncertain prior knowledge of meals without compromising patient safety, even in the event that anticipated meals are skipped.