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Epidemic curve characteristics for the Reed-Frost model
1Department of Electrical & Electronics Engineering, North Dakota State University, Fargo 58105.
Abstract:
Some useful approximations are developed in this paper that describe large-scale epidemic phenomena for the deterministic and stochastic Reed-Frost model. These characteristics provide an a priori quantitative description of the epidemic curve for the deterministic case, such as a threshold requirement, the total size of the epidemic, and the degree of skewness in the epidemic curve. A Poisson distribution asymptotically describes the distribution of the total size of an epidemic when the relative removal rate is well below threshold for the Reed-Frost chain binomial model. These properties are established by an extension of the large-scale epidemic phenomena of the Kermack-McKendrick model.
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