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Expected monotonicity--a desirable property for evidence measures?
Susan E Hodge1, Veronica J Vieland
1Division of Epidemiology, NY State Psychiatric Institute, Columbia School of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY 10032, USA. seh2 @ columbia.edu
Evidential consistency is crucial for genetic studies like genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This study finds that common evidence measures, including expected monotonicity (ExpM), often fail this consistency principle, suggesting limitations in current statistical approaches.
Area of Science:
- Genetics
- Statistical genetics
- Bioinformatics
Background:
- Evidential consistency, where evidence measures approach the true answer with more data, is vital for genetic studies.
- Previous research indicated that many statistical measures used in genetic analysis fail this principle.
- This highlights a need to evaluate and develop robust evidence measures for genetic data analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the expected monotonicity (ExpM) criterion for evidence measures in genetic analysis.
- To assess the performance of likelihood ratio (LR)-based evidence measures under the ExpM criterion.
- To explore alternative consistency criteria and desirable properties of evidence measures.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a simple binomial statistical model.
- Evaluated four likelihood ratio (LR)-based evidence measures.
- Examined the expected monotonicity (ExpM) criterion for these measures.
Main Results:
- Most evaluated evidence measures, including ExpM, did not consistently satisfy the expected monotonicity criterion.
- Observed counterintuitive behavior in some evidence measures.
- Demonstrated desirable properties of the simple LR and its connection to integrated LRs.
Conclusions:
- The expected monotonicity (ExpM) criterion may not be a suitable requirement for evidence measures in genetic analysis.
- Alternative consistency criteria, such as those satisfied by integrated LR and posterior probability of linkage, are more promising.
- The findings suggest a need for reassessment of evidence measurement in genetic studies.
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