Between science and fiction: notes on the demography of the Holocaust

The quantitative effects of the Holocaust have been the subject of much discussion and speculation, but rarely have they been seriously scrutinized using demographic methods. The first part of this article outlines the major factors that need to be fully examined in order to assess the short and long-term effects of the Shoah on the Jewish population. The second section cautiously offers demographic projections for the Jewish population had the Shoah never happened. The obviously speculative analysis presented here is open to many assumptions beyond those suggested by the author in this paper. The results of alternative projections reveal that because of the generations that were not born, high wartime child mortality, and the present day aging of the Jewish population, demographic losses continue to extend far beyond that of six million.