The relationship between new-onset diabetes mellitus and pancreatic cancer risk: a case-control study

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is widely considered to be associated with pancreatic cancer, however, whether DM is a cause or consequence of pancreatic cancer is controversial. In the present study, 1458 patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and 1528 age-, sex- and sociodemographic variables-matched controls were recruited in two university-affiliated hospitals from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2009. DM was defined as fasting blood glucose (FBG) level of 7.0 mmol/L or greater. An unconditional multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Compared with controls, a moderate increased risk of PDAC was observed among cases with long-standing diabetes (≥ 2-year duration), with an AOR (95% CI) of 2.11 (1.51-2.94). Interestingly, a significant higher risk was observed among cases with new-onset DM (<2-year duration), with an AOR of 4.43 (3.44-5.72) compared to controls without DM. In addition, we found a synergistic interaction between cigarette smoking and DM on modifying the risk of pancreatic cancer development (AOR=6.17, 95% CI 3.82-9.94). Similarly, a synergistic interaction between new-onset DM and family history of pancreatic cancer was found for pancreatic cancer risk, with an AOR (95% CI) of 11.04 (2.51-48.53). This study suggested that DM could be both an early manifestation of pancreatic cancer and an aetiologic factor. Possible effect modification on DM by family history of pancreatic cancer and smoking status should be further explored in future aetiologic studies.