Are low back pain and low physical capacity risk indicators for dropout among recently qualified eldercare workers? A...

A high job turnover and dropout among eldercare workers has led to a significant shortage of qualified manpower in the Danish eldercare sector.

The predictive effect of some non-work-related causes for leaving the eldercare sector 2 years after qualification, physical capacity, duration, and severity of previous low back pain, was investigated.

A 2-year prospective cohort study of all the Danish eldercare workers, who finished their education during 2004 (n = 6347). Questionnaire data from 2004 were followed up by register data on attachment to labour market, educational status, and association to trade from Statistics Denmark in 2006.

Data on physical capacity, duration, and severity of low back pain the last 12 months among the female participants were analysed by multinomial logistic regression to estimate odds-ratios for being either in the eldercare sector, in other health- and welfare sectors, in all other sectors, under education, or outside labour market, 2 years after qualification.

Disability due to and duration of low back pain were significant predictors for dropout from the eldercare sector 2 years after qualification. Low physical capacity was not. Data on duration of low back pain suggest a trend towards a dose-response relationship: The longer the duration of low back pain, the higher odds for dropout.

Low back pain and disability due to low back pain during the last year of education were independent predictors for dropout from the eldercare sector 2 years after qualification. However, low self-rated physical capacity did not predict job dropout or turnover.