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Prediction of death for extremely premature infants in a population-based cohort
Henry Chong Lee1, Charles Green, Susan R Hintz
1University of California, San Francisco, Department of Pediatrics, Division of Neonatology, 533 Parnassus Ave, Room U503, San Francisco, CA 94143-0734, USA. leehc@peds.ucsf.edu
Insights
Predicting survival for extremely premature infants can be improved by considering factors beyond gestational age (GA). A model including prenatal steroid exposure, sex, birth weight, and birth type offers better risk stratification for these vulnerable newborns.
Area of Science:
- Neonatalogy
- Perinatal Medicine
- Public Health
Background:
- Gestational age (GA) is the primary factor for counseling extremely premature infants.
- Tertiary care center studies suggest additional factors improve outcome prediction.
- A population-based cohort is needed to validate these findings.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate an enhanced prediction model for extremely premature infant survival.
- To compare a 5-factor model with GA alone for predicting outcomes.
- To assess the model's performance in a large, population-based cohort.
Main Methods:
- Prospective data collection from the California Perinatal Quality Care Collaborative (2005-2008).
- Analysis of infants born between 22 to 25 weeks gestational age.
- Comparison of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development 5-factor model against GA alone.
Main Results:
- The study included 4527 infants, with 3647 receiving intensive care.
- Survival rates were 53% overall and 66% for those receiving intensive care.
- Prenatal steroid exposure, female sex, singleton birth, and higher birth weight significantly reduced mortality risk.
Conclusions:
- Adding prenatal steroid exposure, sex, birth type, and birth weight to GA improves survival prediction for extremely premature infants.
- The enhanced model better categorizes infants into high and low mortality risk groups.
- This model enhances clinical decision-making and counseling for high-risk neonates.
Objective:
Although gestational age (GA) is often used as the primary basis for counseling and decision-making for extremely premature infants, a study of tertiary care centers showed that additional factors could improve prediction of outcomes. Our objective was to determine how such a model could improve predictions for a population-based cohort.
Methods:
From 2005 to 2008, data were collected prospectively for the California Perinatal Quality Care Collaborative, which encompasses 90% of NICUs in California. For infants born at GAs of 22 to 25 weeks, we assessed the ability of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development 5-factor model to predict survival rates, compared with a model using GA alone.
Results:
In the study cohort of 4527 infants, 3647 received intensive care. Survival rates were 53% for the whole cohort and 66% for infants who received intensive care. In multivariate analyses of data for infants who received intensive care, prenatal steroid exposure, female sex, singleton birth, and higher birth weight (per 100-g increment) were each associated with a reduction in the risk of death before discharge similar to that for a 1-week increase in GA. The multivariate model increased the ability to group infants in the highest and lowest risk categories (mortality rates of >80% and <20%, respectively).
Conclusions:
In a population-based cohort, the addition of prenatal steroid exposure, sex, singleton or multiple birth, and birth weight to GA allowed for improved prediction of rates of survival to discharge for extremely premature infants.
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