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Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities
James F Saracco1, J Andrew Royle, David F DeSante
1The Institute for Bird Populations, P.O. Box 1346, Point Reyes Station, California 94956-1346, USA. jsaracco@birdpop.org
Ecology
|August 19, 2010
Summary
This study introduces a new spatial model for analyzing animal population dynamics, revealing significant spatial variation in Wood Thrush survival and residency. These findings are crucial for effective conservation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Population Biology
- Spatial Statistics
Background:
- Understanding spatial variation in animal population dynamics is crucial.
- Spatial modeling of vital rates, such as survival and residency, has received limited attention.
- Capture-recapture data offers valuable insights into population processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model for estimating spatially explicit, year-specific apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities.
- To apply this model to Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program.
- To investigate spatial patterns in Wood Thrush vital rates and their implications for population trends and conservation.
Main Methods:
- Developed a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model.
- Utilized capture-recapture data from the MAPS program for Wood Thrush.
- Generated year-specific, spatially explicit estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi).
Main Results:
- Observed significant year-to-year and spatial variability in Wood Thrush apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi).
- Highlighted striking spatial heterogeneity in residency probability, emphasizing the role of transient individuals.
- Identified broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi, offering insights into population dynamics.
Conclusions:
- The developed spatial model advances the investigation of spatial patterns in vital rates compared to coarse-scale approaches.
- Spatial heterogeneity in vital rates is significant and requires explicit modeling.
- Further application of hierarchical capture-recapture models can enhance understanding of spatiotemporal variation in population dynamics and inform conservation efforts.
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