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[Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction and warning of epidemic mumps]
1Public Health School of Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 102200, China.
Objective:
To analyze the daily data of epidemic Mumps in a province from 2004 to 2008 and set up exponential smoothing model for the prediction.
Methods:
To predict and warn the epidemic mumps in 2008 through calculating 7-day moving summation and removing the effect of weekends to the data of daily reported mumps cases during 2005-2008 and exponential summation to the data from 2005 to 2007.
Results:
The performance of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is good. The result of warning sensitivity was 76.92%, specificity was 83.33%, and timely rate was 80%.
Conclusions:
It is practicable to use exponential smoothing method to warn against epidemic Mumps.
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