Expectations while car following--the consequences for driving behaviour in a simulated driving task

The purpose of this study was to better understand the causes of driver errors in the context of rear-end crashes. When drivers move in traffic they generate an overall assessment of the driving situation and what will happen in the near future. Certain cues in the traffic environment may create an expectation that some specific action is required. The more relevant cues are present, the more the driver will expect that some kind of intervention may be required. In contrary, if hardly any or no relevant cues are present, the driver does not anticipate that an imminent reaction will be necessary. This idea is supported by results from accident analyses which showed that in many cases, rear-end crashes occur in situations which are usually easy to handle (e.g. straight roads, low traffic density). In these situations, drivers may not anticipate that the driver in front will brake and they are thus following too closely to be able to react in time when the front vehicle suddenly brakes or stops. In order to test this hypothesis experimentally, in a driving simulator experiment different expectations were generated by varying the behaviour of a lead car (different braking behaviour, signalling or not before a turn). Driver behaviour was examined after these variations. The analyses partially confirm the influence of different expectations generated by the lead car's behaviour in the first phase of the scenario. Drivers with a respective expectation reacted faster when the car in front suddenly braked and signalled their manoeuvre before turning right at an intersection. However, during a car following phase, drivers did not adapt their speed or distance depending on this expectation. These results can be used to adapt a driver assistance system in car following situations. This should warn and intervene, especially in cases when drivers do not foresee the need for action and therefore cannot react in time.