Patent landscape of countermeasures against smallpox and estimation of grant attraction capability through patent landscape data

The study was concerned with countermeasures against a possible smallpox outbreak. In the process of assessment 18 landscaping sectors were defined and described, the advantages and drawbacks of the corresponding countermeasures being reviewed. The data of the previously published influenza landscape were revisited. The current economic climate of deficit cutting (austerity) also puts emphasis on the optimization of capital investment. We used the materials of the landscape to define and analyze metrics of capital placement optimization. Value score was obtained by fitting patent landscape internals to the sale price of individual patents. Success score was obtained as a product of a-priori parameters that measure likelihood of emergence of a marketable product in a technological sector. Both scores were combined in a qualitative metric. Our methodology defined weight as a product of the sector size by the success score. We hypothesized - based on the material of two landscapes- that a life cycle of a technology begins in IP space with a high patent quality low volume "bud" of low weight, reaches maximum weight and then weight falls again when the technology becomes outdated. The weight and the annual dynamic of weight can serve a measure of investment risk and return. In this report we modeled investment by issue of government grants or purchase of patents by government. In the smallpox landscape the number of patents purchased by government agencies was the highest in the sectors with the highest weight and the trend was confirmed by the count of NIH grants issued in support of the technological sectors. In the influenza landscape only grant issue count was statistically meaningful and the trend was also confirmed. To better fit the grant support levels, the weight expression was optimized by using training coefficients. We propose to use value scores for evaluation of individual patent publications/company portfolios and to use weights for assessment of technological sectors. Such a combination of automated analytical tools may lead to optimized allocation of capital and is intended to support the decisions taken by human experts.