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Evaluation of the productivity decrease risk due to a future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan
Miguel Esteban1, Gorka Longarte-Galnares
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan. esteban.fagan@gmail.com
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 3, 2010
Summary
Future increases in tropical cyclone intensity threaten Japan
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Environmental economics
Background:
- Tropical cyclone intensity is projected to increase in the future.
- Increased intensity leads to greater damage and economic disruption.
- The economic impact of activity cessation during cyclones is understudied.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the cumulative economic risks of intensified tropical cyclones on Japan over 75 years.
- To assess the impact of cyclone-induced economic activity cessation on Japan's GDP.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing projected changes in tropical cyclone intensity patterns (Knutson and Tuleya).
- Economic modeling to quantify GDP impact.
Main Results:
- Significant decrease in national productivity expected.
- Potential GDP reduction of 6% to 13% by 2085.
- Economic cessation during cyclones is a key risk factor.
Conclusions:
- Intensified tropical cyclones pose a substantial economic threat to Japan.
- Proactive economic and adaptation strategies are crucial.
- Future research should focus on mitigating these economic risks.
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