Transesophageal echocardiography screening in subjects with a first cerebrovascular ischemic event

Our goal was to develop decision guides to predict the presence of a high-risk source of embolus and to predict a change in management following transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) in subjects who present with a first cerebral ischemic event. We conducted a retrospective review of subjects age ≥18 years who underwent TEE after a first ischemic event and were admitted to our stroke service between 2004 and 2007 (n = 287). A high-risk source of embolus and a change in clinical management (including medication changes or subsequent testing) were analyzed as separate endpoints, using multivariate techniques and receiver operating characteristic curves. We found that 14.3% of the subjects had a high-risk source, and an additional 61.3% had a potential (or low-risk) source of embolus. Increasing age and no history of diabetes mellitus were independently associated with a high-risk source of embolus. TEE would be recommended for nondiabetic individuals age ≥66 years (sensitivity, 68%; specificity, 76%). The area under the curve (AUC) for detecting a high-risk source was 0.773. TEE results changed medications or clinical management in 30.3% of the subjects. Current smokers were less likely to undergo a change in management. The AUC was uninformative (0.56) for predicting changes in management. Subjects presenting with a first ischemic event age ≥66 years may benefit from TEE. Although changes in management occurred in at least 30% of our cohort, no factors that predicted a change in management better than chance alone could be identified.