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Why does phenology drive species distribution?

Isabelle Chuine1

  • 1Equipe BIOFLUX, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive-CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 05, France. isabelle.chuine@cefe.cnrs.fr

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
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Phenology, the timing of biological events, is crucial for species distribution. Understanding how environmental conditions influence phenology helps predict how species ranges will change with climate change.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Climate Change Biology

Background:

  • Species distribution models (SDMs) are vital for understanding global species ranges.
  • Phenology, the timing of life cycle events, is a key factor influencing species distribution and fitness.
  • Current SDMs often rely on complete annual life cycles and accurate phenological data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the critical role of phenology in shaping species distribution.
  • To discuss the implications of phenological adaptations for species' fitness and survival under changing climate conditions.
  • To review how phenology is integrated into process-based SDMs and to project future species distributions.

Main Methods:

  • Review of existing literature on species distribution, phenology, and climate change.
  • Analysis of how phenological events (e.g., flowering, fruit maturation) influence species range limits.
  • Discussion of process-based SDMs and their reliance on phenological data.

Main Results:

  • Northern range limits are often determined by the inability to complete fruit maturation.
  • Southern range limits can be influenced by insufficient chilling temperatures for bud break and flowering.
  • Phenology is a rapidly evolving adaptive trait susceptible to climate change impacts.

Conclusions:

  • Phenology is a key adaptive trait that significantly shapes species distribution.
  • Understanding phenological responses is essential for accurate species distribution modeling under climate change.
  • Future projections indicate significant shifts in species ranges due to climate-driven phenological changes.