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Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice
Amelie Schmolke1, Pernille Thorbek, Peter Chapman
1UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany. amelie.schmolke@ufz.de
Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
|September 8, 2010
Summary
Ecological models can predict pesticide effects on populations, but most require modification for regulatory use. A review identified key shortcomings for applying these models in pesticide risk assessments.
Area of Science:
- Environmental toxicology
- Ecological modeling
- Risk assessment
Background:
- Pesticide risk assessments typically focus on individual organisms, not populations.
- Population-level pesticide effects are influenced by life history, environment, and landscape structure.
- Ecological models can integrate these factors for better prediction of population-level effects.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess current ecological modeling practices in pesticide risk assessment.
- To identify reasons why ecological models are rarely used in regulatory pesticide risk assessments.
- To provide recommendations for improving model suitability for regulatory purposes.
Main Methods:
- Conducted a literature search for ecological models applied to pesticide risk assessment.
- Assessed identified models based on nine characteristics (model type, complexity, toxicity, exposure, etc.).
- Identified shortcomings of existing models for regulatory applications.
Main Results:
- A wide range of ecological models exist in scientific literature.
- Most models are of high scientific standard but require modification for regulatory use.
- Key shortcomings were identified for regulatory pesticide risk assessments.
Conclusions:
- Ecological models have potential for regulatory pesticide risk assessment but need adaptation.
- Reviewing models based on defined characteristics is recommended for regulatory application.
- Further development is needed to bridge the gap between scientific and regulatory modeling.
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