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Measles and mathematics: "control or eradication?".

P R Kenya1

  • 1Kenya Medical Research Institute, Medical Research Centre, Nairobi.

East African Medical Journal
|December 1, 1990
PubMed
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Despite high measles vaccination coverage, a 1985 outbreak in Kirinyaga highlights challenges. Measles eradication efforts may be premature, especially in tropical regions, due to ongoing transmission.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Vaccinology

Background:

  • A measles outbreak occurred in Kirinyaga District in February 1985.
  • Measles immunization coverage was over 80% district-wide, varying by age group.
  • Vaccine effectiveness was notably lower than coverage rates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the measles outbreak in Kirinyaga District.
  • To assess measles vaccine effectiveness in relation to immunization coverage.
  • To evaluate the feasibility of global measles eradication.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of outbreak data.
  • Calculation of measles vaccine effectiveness across different age groups.
  • Comparison of vaccine effectiveness with immunization coverage rates.

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Main Results:

  • Overall measles vaccine effectiveness was 43.5% in children aged 8-59 months.
  • Vaccine effectiveness peaked at 91.5% in the 24-35 months age group.
  • Immunization coverage was lowest (46%) in 8-11 month olds and highest (90%) in 36-59 month olds.

Conclusions:

  • Global measles eradication may be premature, particularly in tropical areas.
  • Significant obstacles exist for measles eradication compared to smallpox.
  • Continued measles transmission in highly vaccinated populations indicates challenges in achieving herd immunity.