Predictive validity of childhood oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder: implications for the DSM-V

Data are presented from 3 studies of children and adolescents to evaluate the predictive validity of childhood oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and conduct disorder (CD) as defined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) and the International Classification of Diseases, Version 10 (ICD-10; World Health Organization, 1992). The present analyses strongly support the predictive validity of these diagnoses by showing that they predict both future psychopathology and enduring functional impairment. Furthermore, the present findings generally support the hierarchical developmental hypothesis in DSM-IV that some children with ODD progress to childhood-onset CD, and some youth with CD progress to antisocial personality disorder (APD). Nonetheless, they reveal that CD does not always co-occur with ODD, particularly during adolescence. Importantly, the present findings suggest that ICD-10 diagnostic criteria for ODD, which treat CD symptoms as ODD symptoms when diagnostic criteria for CD are not met, identify more functionally impaired children than the more restrictive DSM-IV definition of ODD. Filling this "hole" in the DSM-IV criteria for ODD should be a priority for the DSM-V. In addition, the present findings suggest that although the psychopathic trait of interpersonal callousness in childhood independently predicts future APD, these findings do not confirm the hypothesis that callousness distinguishes a subset of children with CD with an elevated risk for APD.