[Analysis of multiple stepwise regression for prognosis in patients with bacterial pneumonias in elderly]

This paper was based on the material of 100 patients with elderly bacterial pneumonias, doing analysis of multiple stepwise regression for factors effecting prognosis with IBC-PC electronic computer. 100 patients (82 men, 18 women), average ages were 69.6 +/- 7.9 (60-90) years. According to the materials of clinical selected 39 items of possible affect prognosis factors. Item is independent variable (xi). The prognosis is emergency variable (y). Between both were doing analysis of regression, factors of significance were selected to multiple regression equation. In order to decide the closer relations degree between the xi and the y the F values were regulated. Using quantitative analysis and measure, the primary factors were founded. When F value is equal to 1, selected 22 factors related to prognosis. F value is equal to 2, selected factors decrease to 12, F value is equal to 3, selected factors were 6 items. Respectively, F value is 4, 5, selected factors were 5 items, they have very close regression coefficient. That showed the equation was tendency stable. According to the big or small standard regression coefficient, the sequence of affecting prognosis factors were course of disease, upper digestive tract haemorrhage, dielectric disorder, respiratory failure and gram-negative bacilli infection. The result of analysis showed that the key factors were: treatment and diagnosis without delay, pay great attention to examine of pathogen and management of complication.