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Related Concept Videos

Surveys02:16

Surveys

Often, psychologists develop surveys as a means of gathering data. Surveys are lists of questions to be answered by research participants, and can be delivered as paper-and-pencil questionnaires, administered electronically, or conducted verbally. Generally, the survey itself can be completed in a short time, and the ease of administering a survey makes it easy to collect data from a large number of people.
The Availability Heuristic01:08

The Availability Heuristic

A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
Testing a Claim about Population Proportion01:24

Testing a Claim about Population Proportion

A complete procedure for testing a claim about a population proportion is provided here.
There are two methods of testing a claim about a population proportion: (1) Using the sample proportion from the data where a binomial distribution is approximated to the normal distribution and (2) Using the binomial probabilities calculated from the data.
The first method uses normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution. The requirements are as follows: sample size is large...
Cause and Effect01:53

Cause and Effect

While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
Data Collection by Survey01:07

Data Collection by Survey

The systematic method of obtaining and analyzing accurate information of a population is called data collection. A survey is a standard method of data collection that involves collecting information from a target human population about their experience, opinion, or knowledge of a product, service, or process. The responses are recorded and interpreted. The most common survey examples are written questionnaires, face-to-face or telephonic conversations, focus groups, and electronic (e-mail or...
Probability in Statistics01:14

Probability in Statistics

Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring. The term event is defined as a collection of results of a procedure. An event is a simple event when an outcome cannot be divided into simpler parts.
An example of a simple event is a coin toss. The result of a coin toss is either a head or a tail. Here, head and tail are two simple events. These two simple events make up the sample space. Further, the probability of an event occurring falls within the range of 0 to 1. The probability of an...

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Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Internet Surveys.

Adeline Delavande1, Susann Rohwedder

  • 1RAND and Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, Tel 310-393-0411, ext 6593, Fax 310-260-8176, adeline@rand.org.

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A new visual format for surveys improves data collection on Social Security expectations. This "bins-and-balls" method yields more complete responses compared to traditional percent chance formats.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Survey Methodology
  • Public Finance

Background:

  • Eliciting individual subjective expectations, particularly probability distributions, is crucial for understanding choices but presents methodological challenges.
  • Traditional survey methods for capturing expectations can lead to significant data loss due to response inconsistencies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and evaluate an innovative visual representation (bins-and-balls format) for collecting subjective probability distributions in Internet surveys.
  • To compare the effectiveness of the visual format against the standard percent chance format using Social Security expectations data.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the Health and Retirement Study, a representative survey of U.S. adults aged 51 and older.
  • Implemented a randomized controlled trial, assigning respondents to either the novel visual bins-and-balls format or the traditional percent chance format.
  • Collected data on respondents' expectations regarding future Social Security benefits.

Main Results:

  • The visual bins-and-balls format generated usable responses from virtually all participants.
  • In contrast, the standard percent chance format resulted in a significant loss of data (approximately 20%) due to inconsistent responses.
  • Performance across other dimensions was comparable between the two formats.

Conclusions:

  • The bins-and-balls visual format is a viable and effective alternative for eliciting subjective probability distributions in online surveys.
  • This method significantly enhances data completeness, particularly for sensitive topics like retirement expectations.
  • The findings support the adoption of visual elicitation methods to improve the quality and usability of survey data.