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Updated: Jun 8, 2026

Three-Dimensional Shape Modeling and Analysis of Brain Structures
Published on: November 14, 2019
Increasing power to predict mild cognitive impairment conversion to Alzheimer's disease using hippocampal atrophy
Kelvin K Leung1, Kai-Kai Shen, Josephine Barnes
1Centre for Medical Image Computing, University College London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Abstract:
Identifying mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects who will convert to clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important for therapeutic decisions, patient counselling and clinical trials. Hippocampal volume and rate of atrophy predict clinical decline at the MCI stage and progression to AD. In this paper, we create p-maps from the differences in the shape of the hippocampus between 60 normal controls and 60 AD subjects using statistical shape models, and generate different regions of interest (ROI) by thresholding the p-maps at different significance levels. We demonstrate increased statistical power to classify 86 MCI converters and 128 MCI stable subjects using the hippocampal atrophy rates calculated by the boundary shift integral within these ROIs.
Insights
Identifying mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects who will progress to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial. This study uses hippocampal shape analysis to improve the prediction of MCI to AD conversion, aiding clinical trials and patient care.
Area of Science:
- Neuroimaging
- Neurology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Predicting Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is vital for early intervention and clinical trial design.
- Hippocampal volume and atrophy rates are established predictors of cognitive decline and progression to AD.
- Current methods for assessing hippocampal changes may lack the statistical power for precise MCI conversion prediction.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a novel method for identifying individuals with MCI who are likely to convert to AD.
- To enhance the statistical power of detecting hippocampal atrophy indicative of AD progression.
- To improve the classification accuracy of MCI converters versus stable MCI subjects.
Main Methods:
- Utilized statistical shape models to analyze hippocampal shape differences between 60 normal controls and 60 AD subjects.
- Generated regions of interest (ROIs) by thresholding p-maps derived from shape analysis at varying significance levels.
- Calculated hippocampal atrophy rates within these ROIs using the boundary shift integral to classify MCI subjects.
Main Results:
- The developed ROIs based on hippocampal shape analysis significantly increased statistical power for classification.
- Hippocampal atrophy rates calculated within the novel ROIs demonstrated higher accuracy in distinguishing MCI converters from stable MCI subjects.
- Successfully classified 86 MCI converters and 128 MCI stable subjects with improved discriminative ability.
Conclusions:
- Statistical shape analysis of the hippocampus can generate informative ROIs for detecting AD-related atrophy.
- The boundary shift integral within these specific ROIs enhances the prediction of MCI to AD conversion.
- This approach offers a more powerful tool for identifying at-risk individuals in clinical settings and research.
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