A spatio-temporal model to describe the spread of Salmonella within a laying flock

Salmonella is one of the major sources of toxi-infection in humans, most often because of consumption of poultry products. The main reason for this association is the presence in hen flocks of silent carriers, i.e. animals harboring Salmonella without expressing any visible symptoms. Many prophylactic means have been developed to reduce the prevalence of Salmonella carrier-state. While none allows a total reduction of the risk, synergy could result in a drastic reduction of it. Evaluating the risk by modeling would be very useful to estimate such gain in food safety. Here, we propose an individual-based model which describes the spatio-temporal spread of Salmonella within a laying flock and takes into account the host response to bacterial infection. The model includes the individual bacterial load and the animals' ability to reduce it thanks to the immune response, i.e. maximum bacterial dose that the animals may resist without long term carriage and, when carriers, length of bacterial clearance. For model validation, we simulated the Salmonella spread under published experimental conditions. There was a good agreement between simulated and observed published data. This model will thus allow studying the effects, on the spatiotemporal distribution of the bacteria, of both mean and variability of different elements of host response.