Factors associated with tracking of BMI: a meta-regression analysis on BMI tracking

Stable tracking of body composition is a prerequisite for the long-term effect of preventive measures against obesity and its harmful effects. As BMI tracking estimates reported by individual studies vary considerably, we performed a meta-regression analysis to provide a summary estimate and to assess determinants of BMI tracking. Using the Medline and EMBASE databases, a systematic review was conducted to identify publications reporting correlation coefficients as tracking estimates between BMI at baseline and follow-up measurements and the time interval between these measurements. Additional information recorded included age at baseline measurement, gender, and origin of the studied population. Based on the extracted data, a meta-regression analysis was performed using mixed effects models to account for multiple measurements of the same cohorts. Data on 55,072 individuals (797,094 person-years) extracted from 48 publications with follow-up times between 0.5 and 44 years entered the analysis. The overall estimates for the 1-year tracking correlation coefficient were strong (r = 0.78-0.86 depending on age at baseline measurement) and gradually decreasing over time (0.67-0.78 after 10 years, and 0.27-0.47 after 30 years). Study origin classified by continent was another significant predictor of BMI tracking whereas gender was not. In conclusion, this meta-regression analysis showed a high degree of BMI tracking across all age groups investigated and independent of BMI. Successful prevention in weight control is likely to have long term effects at any age, thereby being beneficial with respect to the associated risks of over- and underweight.