Estimating drowning deaths in Northern Iran using capture-recapture method.

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Injury Prevention

Background:

• Drowning is a significant public health concern, particularly in low and middle-income countries.
• Accurate drowning mortality data is essential for informing and implementing effective prevention strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the true burden of drowning mortality in northern Iran using capture-recapture methods.
• To compare the completeness of two major injury registry systems for drowning events.

Main Methods:

• Utilized capture-recapture methodology comparing records from Iran's Forensic Medical System and Death Registry System.
• Employed five matching approaches based on variables including demographics, location, and date of death.
• Focused on Guilan and Mazandran Provinces over a one-year period.

Main Results:

• Estimated drowning incidence was substantially higher than official national figures, ranging from 5.26 to 8.25 per 100,000 population.
• The Death Registry System captured 70% of estimated drowning cases, while the Forensic Medical System captured 54.4%.

Conclusions:

• Capture-recapture methodology offers improved accuracy for estimating drowning events and reducing incidence rate bias.
• This approach enhances the reliability of drowning data for public health policy and inter-population comparisons.