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The Adams family.

Igor Douven¹, Sara Verbrugge

¹Faculty of Philosophy, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. i.e.j.douven@rug.nl

|October 22, 2010

Summary

Adams's Thesis incorrectly predicts sentence acceptability based on conditional probability. New research shows this thesis fails for inferential conditionals, revealing a nuanced relationship between conditional types and probability judgments.

Area of Science:

Linguistics
Cognitive Science
Philosophy of Language

Background:

The acceptability of indicative conditional sentences is often linked to conditional probability.
Adams's Thesis proposes that acceptability directly correlates with the conditional probability of the consequent given the antecedent.

Purpose of the Study:

To empirically test the descriptive accuracy of Adams's Thesis regarding indicative conditional sentences.
To investigate whether Adams's Thesis accurately predicts human judgments of acceptability for inferential conditionals.

Main Methods:

Experimental investigation of people's judgments on the acceptability of inferential conditionals.
Analysis of the relationship between conditional probability and judged acceptability across different types of inferential connections.

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Main Results:

Adams's Thesis was found to be descriptively incorrect, failing to predict acceptability for key subclasses of inferential conditionals.
An interaction effect was observed between the type of inferential connection and the judged acceptability relative to conditional probability.

Conclusions:

The relationship between conditional probability and the acceptability of inferential conditionals is more complex than proposed by Adams's Thesis.
A family of theses, specific to different conditional types, may be needed to accurately model the connection between conditional probability and sentence acceptability.