Identification of three immunologic correlates for HIV type 1 pathogenesis in youth

To evaluate the stability and heterogeneity of cytokine and chemokine profiles in 80 youth with and without HIV-1 infection, we tested plasma samples at repeated visits without antiretroviral therapy. Among nine analytes that were quantified using multiplexing assays, interleukin 10 (IL-10), IL-18, and soluble CD30 persistently showed a positive correlation with HIV-1 viral load (Spearman ρ = 0.40-0.59, p < 0.01 for all). A negative correlation with CD4(+) T cell counts (ρ = -0.40 to -0.60, p < 0.01 for all) was also persistent for the three analytes. Analyses restricted to 48 AIDS-free youth (96 visits) yielded similar findings, as did multivariable models in which race, sex, age, body mass index, and time interval between visits were treated as covariates. These relationships reflected two novel features observed for all three analytes. First, their presence in plasma was relatively stable between visits (ρ = 0.50-0.90, p < 0.03), regardless of HIV-1 infection status. Second, pairwise correlation was strong and persistent in HIV-1-seropositive youth (ρ = 0.40-0.59, p < 0.01), but not in HIV-1, seronegatives (p > 0.13). Additional analytes, especially eotaxin/CCL11 and SDF-1β/CXCL12, had no correlation with HIV-1-related outcomes despite their stability between visits. Overall, circulating IL-10, IL-18, and soluble CD30 could partially track unfavorable responses to HIV-1 infection in youth. These markers of persistent immune activation are individually and collectively indicative of HIV-1 pathogenesis.