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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 7, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment.

Matthew P Thompson¹, David E Calkin, Julie W Gilbertson-Day

¹Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, MT, USA. mpthompson02@fs.fed.us

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

|October 29, 2010

Summary

This study introduces a wildfire risk assessment tool to monitor wildfire trends and prioritize mitigation efforts. It integrates fire likelihood, intensity, and resource impacts for regional and national scales.

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Area of Science:

Wildland fire science
Geospatial risk assessment
Ecological modeling

Background:

Wildfire risk assessment is crucial for prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation.
Existing methods struggle to quantify fire's impact on ecological and nonmarket values.
Uncertainty in fire effects analysis presents a challenge for integrated risk assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

To design and develop a quantitative, geospatial tool for monitoring wildfire risk trends.
To approximate how fire likelihood and intensity influence risks to social, economic, and ecological values.
To provide data for prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures.

Main Methods:

Developed a tool integrating burn probability maps from wildfire simulations.
Incorporated spatially identified highly valued resources (HVRs).
Utilized expert systems and consultation with fire management officials to define quantitative resource response functions based on fire intensity.

Main Results:

Demonstrated a proof-of-concept application of the wildland fire risk assessment tool.
The tool provides a first approximation of wildfire risk at regional and national scales.
Advanced wildfire effects analysis by managing knowledge uncertainty through an expert systems approach.

Conclusions:

The developed tool facilitates monitoring wildfire risk trends over time.
It offers valuable information for prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation strategies.
This approach improves the integration of fire effects into risk assessments by addressing knowledge uncertainty.