[Lung cancer mortality in Qidong (1958-1989) and its trend prediction]

An epidemiologic study of lung cancer mortality in Qidong in the years 1958-1989 was performed based on the data from retrospective survey and registry on cancer. The mortality of the cancer was found to be increasing since 1958. For instance, the rate was 1.04/100,000 in 1958, 9.00/100,000 in 1972, and 21.38/100,000 in 1989. Grey dynamic model was used and the equation established was written in the form Yt = (X1 + 285.078676) exp [0.040 851 (t-1)]-285. 078 676. The rising trend in lung cancer leads to the prediction that this disease will rank second instead of stomach at the end of this century, and may eventually overtake liver cancer as the number one cancer death cause two decades later. As a research strategy lung cancer studies in the rural area should be equally stressed.