Validation of a stochastic modelling approach for Listeria monocytogenes growth in refrigerated foods

A stochastic modelling approach was developed to describe the distribution of Listeria monocytogenes contamination in foods throughout their shelf life. This model was designed to include the main sources of variability leading to a scattering of natural contaminations observed in food portions: the variability of the initial contamination, the variability of the biological parameters such as cardinal values and growth parameters, the variability of individual cell behaviours, the variability of pH and water activity of food as well as portion size, and the variability of storage temperatures. Simulated distributions of contamination were compared to observed distributions obtained on 5 day-old and 11 day-old cheese curd surfaces artificially contaminated with between 10 and 80 stressed cells and stored at 14°C, to a distribution observed in cold smoked salmon artificially contaminated with approximately 13 stressed cells and stored at 8°C, and to contaminations observed in naturally contaminated batches of smoked salmon processed by 10 manufacturers and stored for 10 days a 4°C and then for 20 days at 8°C. The variability of simulated contaminations was close to that observed for artificially and naturally contaminated foods leading to simulated statistical distributions properly describing the observed distributions. This model seems relevant to take into consideration the natural variability of processes governing the microbial behaviour in foods and is an effective approach to assess, for instance, the probability to exceed a critical threshold during the storage of foods like the limit of 100 CFU/g in the case of L. monocytogenes.