A new method to estimate mortality in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings: validation study.

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Demography

Background:

• Accurate mortality data is vital for health interventions in resource-poor and crisis-affected regions.
• Existing mortality data collection methods in these settings have significant limitations.
• A novel method was developed to generate near real-time mortality estimates.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a new method for estimating mortality rates in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings.
• To provide near real-time mortality data to guide health interventions.
• To assess the feasibility and accuracy of the informant method.

Main Methods:

• The study involved four diverse sites: Kabul, Afghanistan; Mae La refugee camp, Thailand; Chiradzulu District, Malawi; and Tanzanian refugee camps.
• Key community informants and next of kin identified bereaved households for data collection over a 60-day period.
• Mortality rates were calculated and validated against capture-recapture analysis using independent death lists.

Main Results:

• The informant method covered populations ranging from 43,794 to 80,136 individuals across study sites.
• Sensitivity of the informant method varied, ranging from 55.0% in Kabul to 72.5% in Chiradzulu District.
• The method demonstrated superior performance compared to active surveillance in Tanzanian refugee camps.

Conclusions:

• The informant method shows moderate sensitivity for mortality assessment but has potential for further development.
• Its ease of implementation, analysis, and ability to provide near real-time estimates are key advantages.
• Further research and strategies are needed to enhance the performance of the informant method for public health applications.