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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 6, 2026

The Use of High-resolution Infrared Thermography (HRIT) for the Study of Ice Nucleation and Ice Propagation in Plants

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Published on: May 8, 2015

Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks.

Derek M Johnson¹, Ulf Büntgen, David C Frank

¹Department of Biology, University of Louisiana, Lafayette, LA 70504, USA. derekjohnson@louisiana.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|November 10, 2010

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change is altering insect population cycles. Rising temperatures are shifting the optimal elevation for Larch budmoth (LBM) outbreaks, causing the collapse of long-term patterns.

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Climate Science
Population Dynamics

Background:

Global warming is linked to ecological shifts and population cycle disruptions.
The Larch budmoth (LBM) in the European Alps exhibited a millennium-long outbreak cycle that unexpectedly collapsed in the 1980s.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the mechanisms behind the collapse of the Larch budmoth's long-term population cycles.
To analyze the relationship between climate fluctuations and shifts in LBM outbreak epicenters.

Main Methods:

Analysis of extensive spatiotemporal LBM population dynamics and defoliation records spanning two centuries.
Development of a population model to test hypotheses on temperature-mediated effects on LBM growth.

Main Results:

Elevational shifts in LBM outbreak epicenters were observed, correlating with temperature fluctuations over 200 years.
The population model supported the hypothesis that rising optimal elevations for LBM growth, driven by warming, dampened population cycles.
The optimal elevation for LBM growth approached the distributional limit of host larch, contributing to the cycle collapse.

Conclusions:

Temperature-mediated shifts in optimal elevation are the primary mechanism driving changes in LBM outbreak epicenters.
The collapse of the Larch budmoth's millennium-long outbreak cycle demonstrates how differential species responses to climate change can cause abrupt ecological transformations.
This study highlights the sensitivity of ecological systems to climate change and the potential for threshold-like responses.