Quantifying the impact of human immunodeficiency virus-1 escape from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes

HIV-1 escape from the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response leads to a weakening of viral control and is likely to be detrimental to the patient. To date, the impact of escape on viral load and CD4(+) T cell count has not been quantified, primarily because of sparse longitudinal data and the difficulty of separating cause and effect in cross-sectional studies. We use two independent methods to quantify the impact of HIV-1 escape from CTLs in chronic infection: mathematical modelling of escape and statistical analysis of a cross-sectional cohort. Mathematical modelling revealed a modest increase in log viral load of 0.051 copies ml(-1) per escape event. Analysis of the cross-sectional cohort revealed a significant positive association between viral load and the number of "escape events", after correcting for length of infection and rate of replication. We estimate that a single CTL escape event leads to a viral load increase of 0.11 log copies ml(-1) (95% confidence interval: 0.040-0.18), consistent with the predictions from the mathematical modelling. Overall, the number of escape events could only account for approximately 6% of the viral load variation in the cohort. Our findings indicate that although the loss of the CTL response for a single epitope results in a highly statistically significant increase in viral load, the biological impact is modest. We suggest that this small increase in viral load is explained by the small growth advantage of the variant relative to the wildtype virus. Escape from CTLs had a measurable, but unexpectedly low, impact on viral load in chronic infection.