Temporal coherence among tropical coastal lagoons: a search for patterns and mechanisms

Temporal coherence (i.e., the degree of synchronicity of a given variable among ecological units within a predefined space) has been shown for several limnological features among temperate lakes, allowing predictions about the structure and function of ecosystems. However, there is little evidence of temporal coherence among tropical aquatic systems, where the climatic variability among seasons is less pronounced. Here, we used data from long-term monitoring of physical, chemical and biological variables to test the degree of temporal coherence among 18 tropical coastal lagoons. The water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration had the highest and lowest temporal coherence among the lagoons, respectively, whereas the salinity and water colour had intermediate temporal coherence. The regional climactic factors were the main factors responsible for the coherence patterns in the water temperature and water colour, whereas the landscape position and morphometric characteristics explained much of the variation of the salinity and water colour among the lagoons. These results indicate that both local (lagoon morphometry) and regional (precipitation, air temperature) factors regulate the physical and chemical conditions of coastal lagoons by adjusting the terrestrial and marine subsidies at a landscape-scale. On the other hand, the chlorophyll-a concentration appears to be primarily regulated by specific local conditions resulting in a weak temporal coherence among the ecosystems. We concluded that temporal coherence in tropical ecosystems is possible, at least for some environmental features, and should be evaluated for other tropical ecosystems. Our results also reinforce that aquatic ecosystems should be studied more broadly to accomplish a full understanding of their structure and function.