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Risk stratification in patients with chronic heart failure based on metabolic-immunological, functional and
Ralph Herrmann1, Anja Sandek, Stephan von Haehling
1Department of Cardiology, Charité Medical School, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Berlin, Germany.
Insights
Predicting chronic heart failure (CHF) mortality is challenging. New metabolic and immunological markers like uric acid and sTNF-R1, alongside peak oxygen consumption (pVO2), offer improved risk stratification for CHF patients.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Biomarkers
- Prognostics
Background:
- Predicting mortality in chronic heart failure (CHF) is crucial but challenging due to limitations of current parameters.
- Existing clinical parameters often face economic and availability constraints in practice.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the prognostic value of serum uric acid, total cholesterol, and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNF-R1) in predicting mortality in CHF patients.
- To compare the predictive performance of these metabolic-immunological markers with established parameters like left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and peak oxygen consumption (pVO2).
Main Methods:
- Prospective study of 114 CHF patients (mean age 63.0 ± 1.0 years) with varying NYHA functional classes.
- Assessment of serum uric acid, total cholesterol, sTNF-R1, LVEF, and pVO2.
- 24-month follow-up for mortality, analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models and ROC curve analysis.
Main Results:
- Serum uric acid, total cholesterol, sTNF-R1, LVEF, and pVO2 all significantly predicted survival in CHF patients.
- Uric acid and sTNF-R1 demonstrated prognostic performance comparable to pVO2 and superior to LVEF.
- A combined model including pVO2, LVEF, uric acid, and sTNF-R1 achieved the highest prognostic value (AUC: 0.91).
Conclusions:
- Metabolic-immunological parameters significantly enhance risk stratification in CHF compared to clinical parameters alone.
- These markers may better reflect the multisystem nature of CHF.
- Further validation in larger populations is recommended for these promising biomarkers.
Background:
A vast array of parameters has been proposed to predict mortality in chronic heart failure (CHF). Their applicability into clinical practice remains challenging due to economical and availability considerations.
Methods And Results:
We studied serum uric acid, total cholesterol, and soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNF-R1) in 114 CHF patients (63.0 ± 1.0 years, NYHA functional class I/II/III/IV: 11/34/54/15) recruited prospectively into a metabolic study program. All patients underwent assessment of left ventricular ejection fraction and measurement of peak oxygen consumption (pVO(2)). Patients were followed for 24 months or until death. A total of 31 patients died; cumulative survival was 78% (95% confidence interval [CI] 70-86%) and 73% (65-81%) at 12 and 24 months, respectively. In single predictor Cox proportional hazard analysis, uric acid, pVO2, sTNFR-1, LVEF (all p<0.0001) and cholesterol (p<0.02) all predicted survival. All parameters remained significant predictors of death after multivariable adjustment (all p<0.02). Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analyses showed that uric acid and sTNF-R1 are equally strong with regards to their prognostic performance in CHF like pVO(2,) but even better than LVEF. The combination of pVO(2), LVEF, uric acid, and sTNF-R1 in ROC statistics turned out as the best model with the highest prognostic value in CHF (AUC: 0.91, sensitivity: 90.4, specificity: 74.2, p=0.0001).
Conclusion:
Including metabolic-immunological parameters into risk assessment might result in a better risk stratification than modeling based on clinical parameters alone, probably due to a better reflection of CHF as multisystem disease. We suggest metabolic-immunological parameters to be tested in larger populations.
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