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Published on: March 1, 2024
From outbreak detection to anticipation
1Département d'épidémiologie et de santé publique, institut de médecine tropicale, Marseille, France. gaetex1@gmail.com
Background:
Bioterrorist threats and the emergence of new infectious pathogens force structures and means dedicated to outbreaks detection to evolve. Obtaining early information is becoming a major stake. Development of early warning system and new epidemiological tools open new perspectives in real time management of outbreaks.
Methods:
Through several examples, this overview presents a synthesis and reports the recent multidisciplinary evolutions, which occurred in the field of outbreak detection and information useful for outbreaks anticipation.
Conclusion:
Outbreak detection is a multidisciplinary activity which relies on many protean epidemiologic sensors. Detection should not be perceived as a finality, but as a crucial step of a broader process in outbreak management (detection, alarm, alert, acceptability, implementation of countermeasures or not). That is why the evaluation of a monitoring system should not be limited to only its ability to detect an aberration. Today, progress in biology, modeling, remote sensing and environmental detection allow model development with anticipation aiming.
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