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Counterfactual potency.

John V Petrocelli1, Elise J Percy, Steven J Sherman

  • 1Department of Psychology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC 27109, USA. petrocjv@wfu.edu

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
|December 1, 2010
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Counterfactual potency, a combination of "if likelihood" and "then likelihood," predicts the impact of counterfactual thoughts on judgments. This new construct influences regret, causation, and responsibility assessments.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Making

Background:

  • Counterfactual thoughts, often expressed as if-then statements, are crucial for learning and decision-making.
  • Existing research has not fully captured the quantitative factors influencing the strength of counterfactuals.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and validate the construct of "counterfactual potency."
  • To demonstrate that counterfactual potency, derived from "if likelihood" and "then likelihood," predicts the impact of counterfactual thinking.

Main Methods:

  • Four empirical studies were conducted to test the proposed model.
  • Participants' perceptions of "if likelihood" and "then likelihood" were measured.
  • The predictive power of counterfactual potency on judgments of regret, causation, and responsibility was assessed.

Main Results:

  • Counterfactual potency reliably predicted the strength of counterfactual influence across various contexts.
  • The multiplicative combination of "if likelihood" and "then likelihood" was a key determinant of counterfactual impact.
  • Evidence suggests counterfactual potency plays a causal role in shaping these judgments.

Conclusions:

  • Counterfactual potency offers a novel framework for understanding the influence of counterfactual thinking.
  • This construct has significant implications for fields studying judgment and decision-making, including law and economics.
  • Future research should explore the nuances of counterfactual potency in diverse real-world scenarios.