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Related Concept Videos

Global Climate Change01:50

Global Climate Change

Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Radiation: Applications01:17

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The average temperature of Earth is the subject of much current discussion. Earth is in radiative contact with both the Sun and dark space; it receives almost all its energy from the radiation of the Sun and reflects some of it into outer space. Dark space is very cold, about 3 K, so Earth radiates energy into it. For instance, heat transfer occurs from soil and grasses, the rate of which can be so rapid that frost can occur on clear summer evenings, even in warm latitudes.
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Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.

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Updated: Jun 6, 2026

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
06:10

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Published on: March 31, 2023

When could global warming reach 4°C?

Richard A Betts1, Matthew Collins, Deborah L Hemming

  • 1Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, UK. richard.betts@metoffice.gov.uk

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|December 1, 2010
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Future greenhouse gas emissions could lead to significant global warming. This study simulates the A1FI scenario, projecting 4°C warming by the 2070s, with potential for earlier warming if carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projected a wide range of future global warming (1.6°C to 6.9°C) by the end of the 21st century without mitigation policies.
  • Political focus often centers on 2°C warming, but AR4 indicated significantly higher warming levels are possible.
  • Higher emissions scenarios and models in AR4, including stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks, suggested greater warming potential.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To simulate climate change using an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) driven by the A1FI emissions scenario.
  • To assess the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks on climate change projections.
  • To provide a best estimate for warming under the A1FI scenario, considering uncertainties.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI (fossil-intensive) emissions scenario.
  • Incorporated uncertainties related to carbon-cycle feedbacks into climate change projections.
  • Compared GCM projections with simple climate model projections and other IPCC model outputs.

Main Results:

  • The A1FI emissions scenario is projected to lead to 4°C of warming relative to pre-industrial levels by the 2070s.
  • Stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks, while less likely, could accelerate the achievement of 4°C warming to the early 2060s.
  • These projections highlight the potential for substantial warming beyond the commonly discussed 2°C threshold.

Conclusions:

  • The A1FI scenario, considered plausible, could result in significant global warming.
  • Carbon-cycle feedbacks represent a critical uncertainty that can influence the timing and magnitude of future warming.
  • This research underscores the need to consider a wider range of emissions scenarios and feedback mechanisms in climate change assessments.