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Laboratory Techniques Used to Maintain and Differentiate Biotypes of Vibrio cholerae Clinical and Environmental Isolates
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Herald waves of cholera in nineteenth century London

Joseph H Tien1, Hendrik N Poinar, David N Fisman

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA. jtien@math.ohio-state.edu

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|December 3, 2010
PubMed

Insights

Cholera deaths in London peaked in summer, but unusual outbreaks in 1832, 1848, and 1853 suggest new strains arrived. These "herald waves" may precede major epidemics, according to historical data analysis.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Historical disease patterns
  • Genomic analysis of pathogens

Background:

  • Cholera mortality in London was recorded weekly from 1824 to 1901.
  • Analysis of historical cholera data reveals distinct seasonal patterns and epidemic years.

Observation:

  • Cholera deaths exhibited strong seasonality, peaking in summer.
  • Anomalous outbreaks occurred outside of summer in 1832 (spring), 1848 (autumn), and 1853 (winter).
  • Four exceptionally severe summer outbreaks, termed 'great' cholera years, occurred in 1832, 1849, 1854, and 1866.

Findings:

  • Non-summer outbreaks in 1832, 1848, and 1853 are hypothesized as 'herald waves' of new cholera strains.
  • A mathematical model supports the concept that new strain introductions outside of summer can lead to initial herald waves followed by subsequent summer epidemics.
  • Genomic analysis of historical cholera specimens may identify the specific strains responsible for these herald waves and major epidemics.

Implications:

  • Understanding the dynamics of cholera strain introduction can improve epidemic prediction and prevention strategies.
  • Historical genomic data offers insights into the evolution and spread of infectious diseases.
  • This research highlights the potential of integrating epidemiological data with molecular analysis for public health insights.

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