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Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839-2009
Alan L Olmstead1, Paul W Rhode
1Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Summary
North American farmers adapted to climate change by expanding wheat production into harsher environments. This historical adaptation, driven by biological innovations, offers lessons for future agricultural resilience.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Change Adaptation
- Historical Agronomy
Background:
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts significant temperature increases (3-4 °C) in North American grain-growing regions by 2100.
- These projected climate shifts pose substantial challenges to wheat cultivation, potentially altering suitable growing areas.
- Historical agricultural records provide valuable insights into the adaptive capacity of farming systems facing climatic variability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze historical wheat production data and climate norms in North America.
- To understand how farmers adapted to challenging environmental conditions over the 19th and 20th centuries.
- To assess the role of biological technologies in facilitating agricultural adaptation.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a novel county-level dataset of North American wheat production.
- Analyzed historical climate norms (precipitation and temperature) associated with wheat cultivation.
- Compared climate conditions of wheat production distributions from 1839 and 2007.
Main Results:
- North American wheat production expanded into regions previously deemed too arid, variable, or harsh.
- The median annual precipitation norm for wheat production decreased by half from 1839 to 2007.
- The median annual temperature norm for wheat production was 3.7 °C lower in 2007 compared to 1839, with most of this shift occurring before 1929.
- This adaptation was significantly enabled by biological innovations, including but not limited to the Green Revolution.
Conclusions:
- Generations of North American farmers demonstrated remarkable adaptability to climatic challenges.
- Technological and biological innovations were crucial for expanding agriculture into less favorable environments.
- Historical adaptation strategies offer important lessons for future climate resilience in agriculture.
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