Modelling breast cancer in a TB fluoroscopy cohort: implications for the Dutch mammography screening

Breast cancer incidence in a tuberculosis fluoroscopy cohort has been modelled with a two-stage carcinogenesis model. The relatively simple model, in which hormonal influences only affect the number of sensitive target cells, fits the data very well. Under the assumption that individual hormonal differences average out, and with a relative biological effectiveness for mammographic X rays of 1, the model yields ∼10 fatal breast cancer cases induced by the entire Dutch screening programme over a period of 25 y. This is much lower than derived from standard ICRP risk estimates and should be compared with the number of lives saved, which is estimated at ∼350 y(-1). As the extent of screening is currently being reconsidered in The Netherlands and elsewhere, this is an important result.