The perils of prediction

Predicting dangerousness is performed by the mental health expert in a variety of settings. Within the medical model the issue is usually imminent dangerousness with the focus on intervention, diagnosis, and possibly treatment. The prediction of future dangerousness, however, is typically an administrative or legal function. The practitioner should be aware of the differences and the consequences of each opinion. This article examines the controversy of future dangerousness and argues for a more thorough evaluation and a frank disclosure of the inevitable limitations of forecasting.