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How much do we know about the current extinction rate?
1Fraser Smith and robert May are at the Dept of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK OX1 3PS.
Despite low extinction percentages, current data indicates a significant risk to biodiversity. The ongoing loss of animal and plant species highlights a growing extinction crisis, contrary to initial interpretations of the data.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Biodiversity Studies
Background:
- Historical extinction events, such as the Permian/Triassic and Cretaceous/Tertiary, involved massive biodiversity loss.
- Recent extinction rates for animal and plant species are documented since approximately 1600 AD.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze current extinction rates of animal and plant species.
- To evaluate the present risk of extinction for life on Earth.
Main Methods:
- Quantitative analysis of recorded extinct animal species (486).
- Quantitative analysis of documented extinct plant species (600).
- Comparison of current extinction figures with past mass extinction events.
Main Results:
- Approximately 0.04% of described animal species and 0.25% of described plant species have gone extinct since c. 1600.
- These percentages are considerably lower than those observed during major geological mass extinctions.
Conclusions:
- Initial comparisons suggest a low current risk of extinction.
- Emerging data indicates that life on Earth faces a substantial and increasing extinction risk.
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